Late last week, the Kaiser Family Foundation released a poll showing that Americans have little confidence in the landmark health care reform that President Obama signed into law last year. The Kaiser survey found that just 18 percent of respondents believed that the Affordable Care Act would improve their circumstances; 31 percent said they'd be worse off, while 44 replied that the Act wouldn't make much of a difference in their lives.
With these findings in view, it's certainly no shock that the Kaiser poll also discovered that a majority of Americans--51 percent--take an unfavorable view of the 2010 health-care overhaul, compared to just 34 percent who viewed the measure favorably. These numbers marked a new low in public support for the law, so the Kaiser survey garnered a great deal of media attention.
Political leaders and lawmakers of course do well to heed such trends, since the public's views shape both their own immediate career prospects and the likely course of modification to laws such as the Affordable Care Act. But our political process can also benefit greatly from heeding the findings of prediction markets in such cases.
These markets can help our political class handicap the probability of certain outcomes. (Of course, whether such outcomes match up in any way with either the public's will--or with the will of the majority of the public--is a separate question, which need not detain us here.)
One key prediction market, Intrade, currently forecasts a 37 percent likelihood that the U.S. Supreme Court will rule the health care law's controversial individual mandate is unconstitutional by the end of 2012.
Under the individual mandate, all U.S. citizens are required to have health insurance; the idea behind it is to keep insurance costs down by eliminating what's known as adverse selection in the market for healthcare.
With these findings in view, it's certainly no shock that the Kaiser poll also discovered that a majority of Americans--51 percent--take an unfavorable view of the 2010 health-care overhaul, compared to just 34 percent who viewed the measure favorably. These numbers marked a new low in public support for the law, so the Kaiser survey garnered a great deal of media attention.
Political leaders and lawmakers of course do well to heed such trends, since the public's views shape both their own immediate career prospects and the likely course of modification to laws such as the Affordable Care Act. But our political process can also benefit greatly from heeding the findings of prediction markets in such cases.
These markets can help our political class handicap the probability of certain outcomes. (Of course, whether such outcomes match up in any way with either the public's will--or with the will of the majority of the public--is a separate question, which need not detain us here.)
One key prediction market, Intrade, currently forecasts a 37 percent likelihood that the U.S. Supreme Court will rule the health care law's controversial individual mandate is unconstitutional by the end of 2012.
Under the individual mandate, all U.S. citizens are required to have health insurance; the idea behind it is to keep insurance costs down by eliminating what's known as adverse selection in the market for healthcare.
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